A third of Victoria’s water catchments haven’t recovered from the Millennium Drought. What does that mean for spa country?

A third of Victoria is still in a hydrological drought state from a drought that ended 15 years ago. For Daylesford and Hepburn Springs, home to almost all of Australia's mineral springs and a $612 million tourism economy, the implications could be significant.

What is a mineral spring? Aside from a lyrical phrase, mineral springs are a form of groundwater that arise in soil where volcanoes were once active. 

• This water contains a high mineral content and varies in temperature. 

• It is recognised for alleged unique health benefits, often attracting the establishment of spa settlements in their vicinity. 

• Daylesford and Hepburn Springs have become known as “Spa Country” in Victoria for this reason. 

What’s happening to them? Mineral springs heavily rely on rainfall as a method of replenishing the underground aquifers that sustain them. 

An Integrated Water Management Plan put together by Alluvium Consulting, Central Highlands Water, and Hepburn Shire in 2022 listed Daylesford as a region vulnerable to water supply issues due to the area’s reliance on seasonal rainfall. 

In short: If there’s less rain, that could spell trouble. The southern parts of Australia have encountered this already, due to something called the Millennium Drought. 

The Millennium Drought: Between 1997 and 2009, the Millennium Drought saw the worst drought recorded in recent Australian history. It fundamentally changed the way Australians interacted with their water supply. 

It was a generation-defining event in our climate history, as dry years set new records and severe water-use regulations were heavily pushed. 

Since 2021, The Victorian Government, Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO have partnered on the Victorian Water and Climate Initiative, finding "the weather systems that contribute to Victorian rainfall changed significantly after the Millennium Drought."

They also found: 

• Groundwater levels declined and streamflow remained significantly lower following the drought’s end 

• Overall rainfall has declined, while heavy rainfall events have shown an increase. These events can lead to contamination of the springs with biological materials 

• The climate in Victoria is expected to continue warming and rainfall is expected to decrease further.

Have you ever seen the rain? Tim Peterson, Associate Professor at Monash University, is an expert in hydrology, groundwater, and environmental statistics.

🗣️ “A third of Victoria hasn’t recovered from the Millennium Drought. Catchments continue to be in a hydrological drought state.” Peterson told the Brolga.

This “hydrological drought state” has changed many beliefs around the way rivers and groundwater catchments behave. Previously, it was thought they always recovered from drought, it just took a while. Now, it appears they remain in a changed state even after rains return. 

• “Even now, with the same rain, there is significantly less streamflow, because the catchments change behaviour,” said Peterson. “Research shows that as recently as 2022, these catchments haven’t recovered from the drought that ended in 2009.” 

Associate Professor Peterson said Monash University is still actively investigating the impact of this changed behaviour. While climate is a factor, the way groundwater is extracted has a large impact as well. 

• A research paper that Professor Peterson co-authored in 2023 included data showing that a drop in rainfall by even 1mm lowers groundwater in the region surrounding spa country by 40mm - 60mm. 

So what about spa country? Tourism is a rich industry in the region, and without the central attraction this could change. The consequences of any negative impact on the area’s mineral springs would be far-reaching.

• Statistics collected through the Mineral Springs Master Plan 2025 - 2032 showed that the region saw $612 million in tourism spend in the year ending December 2024.

• Tourism additionally created more than 5,700 jobs. 

• Between 2022 and 2023, tourism accounted for just under 10 percent of the region’s economy. 

The question is, would this money still be spent in spa country without the very basis for its name? If not, what happens to the businesses and the townspeople left behind? 

According to Councillor Brian Hood, any threat to the mineral springs would be a serious issue for Hepburn Shire. 

🗣️: “Tourism keeps our shops, cafes, pubs, wellness facilities, and tourist sites very busy. It’s great for local jobs,” he told the Brolga, “The natural environment is a huge attraction for visitors in this beautiful part of Victoria - and that includes the natural mineral spas. Any threat to the mineral spas would be a serious issue for us.”  

Not only would environmental changes be an issue, but there’s also the added issue of human use of the springs. 

“Excessive extraction of mineral water for commercial purposes is also of concern.” Cr Hood said. 

The human element: Victoria’s Mineral Springs Master Plan was released in 2025, after two years of community consultation, to mitigate concerns and implement strategies for responsible management of the natural resources. 

Extraction methods and amounts have previously been a cause for concern for local residents.