From record harvests to failing returns: What’s West Vic’s farming outlook?
Beef, sheep and wool are all expected to decline in gross value, while pigs, poultry and eggs could see a slight upturn.
Zara Cuthbertson
March 18, 2026
Australia has had its richest year on record in the agriculture sector, but data predicts a downward turn on the horizon.
What happened: The latest agricultural outlook from the Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics revealed Australia has had a record high agricultural production year in 2025-26, reaching $101 billion in gross value.
But that number is set to fall by six percent to $95 billion in 2026-27.
Big beef drop: The gross value of beef cattle slaughter and live exports is forecast to fall by 14 percent from $22.7 billion in 2025-26 to $19.6 billion in 2026-27.
The predicted fall is still expected to be 11 percent higher than the 10-year average.
The outlook notes a higher rate of farms de-stocking cattle due to predicted low rainfall conditions, which could undo current momentum in the cattle market thanks to re-stock demand.
This could result in weaker saleyard prices.
Eggs breaking even: Pigs, poultry and eggs are tipped to see moderate changes.
The gross value of pig and poultry slaughter is expected to rise by two percent to $6.6 billion due to rising demand.
Egg production is facing a one percent decline to $1.4 billion as a result of lower egg prices.
Sheep and wool: The gross value of lamb and sheep slaughter, wool and live sheep exports is projected to fall by three percent to $9.4 billion.
Lamb and mutton prices saw record highs this financial year and are set to ease in 2026-27, but “remain buoyed” by global demand.