Extreme weather could cost Victoria $71 billion in infrastructure damage, and Ballarat’s already battered roads are right in the crossfire

Newington local Christian Dymock says the “once in a century” 2022/2023 floods that almost cost him his car are still burned into his memory – and the frustrations have not disappeared. 

Dymock has lived in West Victoria for seven years, and in that time has experienced rising temperatures and increasingly severe weather.

🗣️: “My wife is from Germany and said she’s never seen roads like this,” Dymock told the Brolga.   

The damaging rain and flooding has taken its toll on the region’s roads, carving out potholes and ruining highways that sit in constant need of repair.

Now, a new report has warned road maintenance costs across regional parts of the state could skyrocket, with the changing climate only accelerating the damage.

❓What happened: Victoria’s independent advisory body Infrastructure Victoria has released a report detailing projected costs to roads, rail, energy and health networks throughout the state as extreme weather events increase.

The report: While the report is the first of its kind with thorough, long-term research on the impacts of extreme weather, this is not the first time the organisation has warned the government it needs to be seriously planning for climate adaptation. Previous findings and media releases have urged action as far back as 2022. 

• The 2026 findings claim more than $57 billion worth of infrastructure is at risk of damage by 2030, with costs potentially exceeding $71 billion over the next few decades. 

Relevance to West Vic: The report found increased rainfall, flooding and bushfires pose a high risk to regional roads. It stated extreme storm and rainfall events cause heightened 

damage to road surfaces, leading to excessive pothole formation. 

Graphics published alongside these findings highlight Ballarat roads as a zone of concern. 

What people said: Many Ballarat locals have memories of the last time the roads flooded, with damage still noticeable on a daily drive. 

Ron Perry, a Ballarat local, told the Brolga damage to his car from the floods had been extensive. 

🗣️: “Four bent rims with two tyres destroyed on the Western Highway. That’s just one trip, two different locations.” 

Newington resident Christian Dymock had a particularly jarring experience. 

🗣️: “My wife and I were driving home from Melbourne at about 1am, down Cuthberts Road. It was during that flooding, they called it something like ‘once in a century’. It opened up the potholes left, right and centre.”

• “There was a pothole you couldn’t see because it was filled with rain, reflecting back up. The car made an almighty bang. It shocked my wife awake.”

The expert opinion: Roger Jones from Victoria University told the Eastern Melburnian investing in resilient infrastructure can be a hard bargain, as the definition of success comes from the disaster being avoided rather than integrated. 

Jones is currently a professional research fellow at the university studying climate-change related risk. 

🗣️ “My own opinion is that the level of exposure that they're talking about for 2030 is what we're exposed to now,” Jones said, adding he hoped state and federal governments would act quickly on the findings and deliver adaptation plans as soon as possible.

• “We’re not flying blind into the future,” he said. “There’s both a moral and, increasingly, a legal obligation to actually act on this kind of information.”

🌏 The bigger picture: You don’t have to go back far to see this damage in Ballarat. In 2022 and 2023, record floods caused more than 150 roads to close with damage persisting for months. This debilitated the road, creating a sizable vulnerability to pothole formation, made worse by heavy truck traffic on regional routes. 

• These weather patterns are a trend forecast to continue, according to Victoria’s Climate Science Report. Specific to West Vic, daily rainfall extremes could increase by 8 percent per degree of global warming. 

🔥 Fire watch: The increased occurrence of bushfires has a role to play in floods as well.

• A fact sheet from the Victorian State Emergency Service (SES) states that plants are important for absorbing run-off and water. In areas where plant cover has been burned, more water will flow into riverbeds and pool in low-lying areas, causing flash flooding. 

The impacts: Parts of the Western Highway are already nicknamed the “death stretch” due to the high number of crashes on the worn road. In January, flash floods following record-breaking rains along the Great Ocean Road caused havoc and hundreds of thousands worth of damages. 

Potential solutions: Jill Riseley, Acting Chief Executive for Infrastructure Victoria, told the Brolga the release of this report is a rare chance to take action. 

🗣️: “The Victorian Government is updating its climate adaptation action plans this year,” Riseley said. “This is a once in a 5-year opportunity for the government to prioritise and fund infrastructure adaptation to address the risks from climate change.” 

• Riseley said that although the report was geared towards state government-owned infrastructure, it could be of use on a local level too. 

“Local governments can use the established method we used in our analysis to identify risks.”