Coalition and Labor lose ground as voters look elsewhere

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🗳️ Voters drift from major parties as minor and independent support rises

Australian voters are increasingly turning their backs on the two major parties, with new polling suggesting a nail-biter election that could be shaped by independents and minor parties.

📊 The numbers

In a poll commissioned by Gazette News, DemosAU surveyed just over 1,200 people nationwide, with a margin of error of 2.8%. Respondents were shown actual ballot options for their electorates to mirror real-world voting.

On a two-party preferred basis:

• Labor: 51%

• Coalition: 49%

But the real story is in minor parties and independents:

• Independents: 7% (⬆️ 1.7%)

• One Nation: 9% (⬆️)

• The Greens: 12% (stable, ⬇️ 0.2%)

🧠 Smarter voting patterns

Pollsters say voters are getting more sophisticated. Instead of just choosing a major party, many are using preferential voting to reflect their true values.

The shift is especially visible in the stable support for One Nation, even when newer alternatives like the Trumpet of Patriots or Family First are in the mix.

🧍‍♂️🧍‍♀️ Why independents are cutting through

The independent surge is powered by:

• Dissatisfaction with party politics

• Voter unrest

• And preference flows — many independents don’t win the most first-choice votes but benefit heavily from second and third preferences.

They’re often seen as freer operators, not bound to a party line, and campaigning on listening to local communities.

🧨 How minor parties are gaining ground

Minor parties aren’t just protest vessels anymore. Some are establishing consistent bases of support, and carving out policy niches that resonate with specific voter groups.

One Nation’s continued momentum is a key example — holding ground even with other far-right or nationalist options on the ballot.

What’s changing:

• Voters are showing more loyalty to parties outside the mainstream

• Some minor parties are now preference kingmakers, especially in tight seats

• Their presence often forces policy shifts from major parties looking to win back ground

🏘️ Polling methodology

To ensure a more representative snapshot, pollsters accounted for:

• Age

• Gender

• State

• Education

• Income

• Housing situation — owning, renting, mortgaged or living with parents

🔮 What it means

This latest poll suggests a continued erosion of support for both Labor and the Coalition. Minor parties and independents are filling the space — and with almost 1 in 3 voters going non-major last election, that trend looks set to grow.

🗓️ The only poll that counts

As always, the real verdict comes May 3rd.