They’ve hit gas off Port Campbell. So who gets it?

Despite company assurances, independent experts say the new gas wells off Port Campbell and Peterborough are unlikely to deliver either cheaper domestic supply or progress towards Australia’s 2035 climate goals, with much of the gas instead expected to be sold into the broader domestic market - or exported.

❓The details: The operation - run by US company ConocoPhillips leasing the Swiss-owned Transocean rig - has already struck gas in one of two wells.

• The rig can house up to 140 workers on 21-day rotations.

• The first well, about 55km off Port Campbell, struck gas on November 17, according to reporting in the Australian Financial Review. 

• The second sits roughly 53km from Peterborough.

🌎 Climate claims: ConocoPhillips says the project is aimed at helping supply Australia’s domestic gas market and supporting the Albanese Government’s 2035 climate targets. 

But the company’s claims don’t neatly align with how the gas market currently works.

🚢 Big exporters: Australia already produces far more gas than it consumes, with about 80 percent exported, due to international markets offering a higher profit. 

• There is also no requirement for gas from these new wells to stay in Victoria - once it enters the East Coast network, it simply flows to whichever buyer pays more.

Josh Runciman, a lead Australian gas analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, told the Brolga some of the gas may reach Melbourne and/or Adelaide.

“Once it’s in the gas grid, really, it then depends on who purchases it,” he said.

“We do see at times gas flowing from the southern states often flows north to Queensland, and some of that gas probably is exported.”

🎯 Talks of targets: Runciman also addressed claims that new drilling will help Australia meet its 2035 emissions targets.

“What we actually see is that the share of both gas and coal have fallen at the same time, and that’s because renewables are picking up a lot of the load,” he said.

He pointed instead to faster rollout of renewable energy, stronger energy efficiency measures and keeping more gas for domestic use as key steps.

For coastal communities along the Great Ocean Road, the arrival of the rig doesn’t automatically translate into local benefits. 

If the company decides the find is commercially viable, it must still clear several federal approvals before any production can begin.