When spring turns to summer, a lack of rain could leave West Vic exposed

Record low rainfall and long-term drought conditions are fuelling a heightened risk of bushfires across Western Victoria in coming months.

Dry conditions in south-west Victoria have left a dangerous build-up of fuel, including dead vegetation and fast-curing pasture, according to the Australian and New Zealand National Council for fire and emergency services 2025 spring outlook.

While patches of green growth may appear in paddocks this spring, underlying dryness will allow fires to ignite and spread more easily.

“The more fuel available, the hotter and more intense a bushfire can become and the faster it can spread,” the Country Fire Association said.

“While winter rainfall across the south-west … could minimise the chance of fires in forests, a lack of rainfall in spring could result in above-normal fire potential in these areas leading into summer.”

Bureau of Meteorology data shows below average rainfall levels have been accumulating for the past 12 to 18 months, with some parts of the state’s west showing their lowest rainfall totals on record. 

Scientists link the decline to shifting high pressure systems, which are becoming larger, stronger and moving further south. 

These changes are forcing rain-bearing weather further down across the Bass Strait, missing south-west Victoria, thus leaving the region drier.

The CSIRO’s 2024 State of the Climate report highlighted how climate change was influencing these shifts, with rising temperatures, altered rainfall patterns and reduced humidity all contributing to harsher fire weather in Victoria.

AFAC chief executive Rob Webb said residents should be alert to warnings and advice this spring, and have a bushfire plan.

Emergency services advise households to prepare by clearing gutters, trimming vegetation around homes, checking pumps and hoses are in good working order, and finalising plans if they are required to leave their homes.