The future of Dan Tehan and Alex Dyson in the hands of Wannon’s undecided voters

Veteran Liberal Party politician Dan Tehan holds a slight lead over Independent Alex Dyson, according to polling from UComms.

The poll of 1,141 Wannon voters was commissioned by Climate 200 and conducted between April 8 and 11.

If the results of the polling were replicated at the federal election on Saturday, Tehan would scrape over the line with 51 percent of the two-candidate preferred vote to Dyson's 49 percent.

The poll, which had a margin of error of 2.89 percent, showed Tehan with 37.1 percent of the primary vote, compared to Dyson's 23.1 percent.

The importance of preferences at this poll is underscored by the number of first preference votes not going to the two major candidates.

For example, on first preferences the Greens Party is polling at 6.9 percent, the Labor Party at 9.4 percent, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party 6.2 percent and Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots 3.2 percent.

Undecided voters will also carry a lot of sway on Saturday, with about one in eight voters (12.1 percent) not knowing who they’d select. Eleven percent of male voters and 13 percent of female voters were undecided at the time of the poll.

Out of those still unsure, 26.5 percent said they had a slight leaning toward Dyson, 24.5 percent toward Tehan, 13.3 percent toward One Nation and 9.2 percent toward Trumpet of Patriots.

At the previous federal election in 2022, Tehan - who was first elected in 2010 after years as a political, diplomatic and trade operative - retained his seat with a two-candidate preferred vote of 53.9 percent against Alex Dyson (46.1 percent).

The Brolga was due to conduct a phone interview with Alex Dyson on Monday (April 28), however it was cancelled shortly before the 9:30am scheduled time. Staff said Dyson was unwell and would take questions by email. He will visit Colac on Wednesday (April 30).

Meanwhile, a new YouGov poll commissioned by AAP and ACM put Dyson into landslide territory, with a two-candidate preferred vote of 57 percent, with Tehan on 43 percent. The poll was based on a sample of 246 Wannon voters.

According to the latest Australian Electoral Commission statistics, 18,456 people have already voted in Wannon.