Warrnambool council says "supposed science" not up to standard as peer-reviewed flood study is rejected

Warrnamool City Councillors have voted 4-1 to reject recommendations from an independent and peer-reviewed flood study for South Warrnambool and Dennington, with some councillors questioning the “supposed science” of the data.

The study was organised, funded and commissioned by the state government through Emergency Management Victoria, and found high flood risks within the Warrnambool City Council. However, the findings have been the ire of some locals since its inception, seen as an obstacle to housing development plans.

According to the summary report for the investigation, the study was used to create new flood overlays in order to guide development and support emergency planning, with average annual flood damages estimated at over $700,000. The state government currently uses the data as its latest flood data for the area. 

Using expert consultants, the study used climate projections to the year 2100 that included a 1.2-metre sea level rise and 41 percent increased rainfall intensity.

During Monday’s council meeting, locals and councillors alleged the study affected local property values and development potential due to the study’s projection of a high increase in risk by 2100.

Property owners like Noah Cole, who purchased land in the Oceanex subdivision four minutes from the city’s centre, said he was informed four weeks after closing that his block was "no longer buildable” as a result of the findings.

The investigation’s principal environmental engineer and lead investigator Michael South spoke to the ABC yesterday afternoon.

South said the team used national and localised rainfall inputs, and streamflow and water level data to assess flood risk to the area.

He said the findings were on the "upper end" of risk, but this was on par with statewide assessments and climate inputs.

"The methodologies we used for the flood study are consistent with other studies and the trajectory of climate change," he said.

"We've never used anything but that."

In the last decade, Mr South told the ABC he had worked on about 20 flood studies, leading half, but Warrnambool’s level of rejection was “a first”.

Councillor Vicki Jellie led the charge against adoption on Monday night’s council meeting. 

“Yes [the government] funded the study, but I did not realise until recently that the data was already being used, even before councillors made a formal decision on it, that in itself mystifies me,” Jellie said.

Councillor Debbie Arnott also raised her concerns involving the “human element” of the flood study’s shortcomings.

“I have really struggled with the human element and the cost to our current community, I feel that has been downplayed,” she said. 

“The loss of land value that has already come to pass, I find that very discerning.”

“The state government already owns this [climate] information, this information is already being enacted upon. In a sense it seems council’s decision is superfluous, why are we even bothering to make a decision on information that we don’t own?”

Mayor Ben Blain stood alone in supporting the study, arguing that while he understood the views of his fellow councillors, without planning panel review, residents would continue falling through gaps with no avenue for appeal or mitigation works advocacy.

Image: Warrnambool during the 2020 floods. Image credit: South Warrnambool and Dennington Flood Investigation