Warnings issued as Western Vic set to face increased bushfire risk this winter

The Country Fire Authority has issued a warning of increased bushfire risk across much of the state, including Western Victoria. 

The recently-released Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for winter has noted the western Victoria region’s dry conditions and warmer autumn temperatures as the main catalysts for this season’s higher fire risk.

A six-hectare fire at Panmure yesterday afternoon, which saw 14 units fight to bring the blaze under control, is a timely reminder of the region’s current conditions.

March and April saw their fourth highest temperatures on record in the region, as well as below average rainfall across all of western Victoria and an extension of the Fire Danger Period in some parts of the state for the first time since 2019, when the region last saw dry, hot conditions of this level.

These conditions, coupled with existing underlying dryness, have led to a higher level of dried grass and vegetation. 

In grassland areas across western Victoria a lack of pasture growth has led to grazed-out or bare conditions.

As a result, an above average bushfire risk is predicted for much of western Victoria this winter. 

Staying responsible during burn-offs

The increased risk isn’t for long-running bushfires, like the kind we’d typically see during summer, but for bushfire or grassfire events caused by uncontrolled burn-offs and other activities.  

“The lack of rainfall and dry vegetation across many parts of the state is a great concern for firefighters this time of the year and we’re asking people to remain vigilant and not become complacent just because we’re not in summer anymore,” acting CFA chief officer Garry Cook said. 

Even in winter, CFA officials say it’s vital for communities to remain vigilant, particularly when burning-off. 

Locals are urged to register their burn-offs, monitor weather conditions, and have sufficient equipment and water to stop the fire spreading and to never leave a burn-off unattended.

"While cooler days are arriving, the landscape remains dry enough to allow fires to start and spread quickly if a burn-off gets out of control, especially when coupled with strong winds,” Cook said.

"The impact and damage of an escaped fire on local communities and emergency services can be devastating.”

What’s causing the dry conditions?

A report by Environment Victoria notes that Victoria’s cool season rainfall has already decreased by about 13 percent, which is part of a broader pattern of decreasing rainfall in southern Australia. These systems push rain-bearing cold fronts further south, away from Victoria, resulting in fewer rain events during the cool season.

The report explains that the increase of persistent high-pressure systems over southern Australia is one of the “primary reasons” for reduced rainfall since February last year, caused in part as a consequence of mining and burning coal, oil and gas. These fossil fuels, when burnt, pump out carbon dioxide and methane that become trapped in the atmosphere and increase global temperatures.