Ballarat needs to house 40,000 more people in 15 years, at a rate of 52 a week. Can it be done?

Go up, or go out?

This question is crucial to the future of Ballarat, as the city - like many regional centres around the country - wrestles with the apartment versus urban sprawl debate.

It has long been the norm that country towns and cities do not like apartment blocks in or near the CBD. Development applications for apartments can be met with furious protest - the apartments will be an eyesore; they don’t match the vibe of the location; we are a country town, not an urban city.

The alternative, however, is more suburban sprawl. 

For years people have called for more housing supply, in an attempt to deflate the price bubble that has been expanding since 1999 and cruelled the chances of millions of potential home buyers. 

Looking forward, looking back: The last census in 2021 put the Ballarat population at around 113,000, and the current population is thought to be circa 120,000.

The City of Ballarat predicts it will grow to 164,000 by 2041. This means more than another 40,000 people will need to be housed over the next 15 years, at a rate of about 2,700 per year, or 52 a week.

The council has delivered a strategic plan that encompasses planning reform, an increased number of apartments and continued urban sprawl into greenfield areas. 

Everyone chips in: Victorian Government stats show 25 percent of Victorian’s population lives regionally. By 2051 the regional population is expected to balloon from 1.5 million to 2.2 million, and across the state local government areas are expected to do their bit. That means more development approvals and more residents. 

As of March 2025, the state government’s 2051 housing target for Ballarat required 46,900 new homes, with 18,900 built on greenfield sites and 28,000 in urbanised areas, known as in-fill. 

Alongside the new arrivals will come more rate revenue for the city, but it will also require infrastructure, from drainage, roads, lighting, footpaths and green spaces to sporting fields, schools, daycare and shops. 

How exactly should a city like Ballarat meet the challenge?

Development in country and regional centres has always been a vexed and divisive issue. Places grow from a population of one to 100 to 1,000. Then to 5,000, and onto 10,000, 25,000 and, for some, 50,000 and beyond.

Tradition versus change: At each step on the way there are those who want to preserve what they have, and will fight tooth and nail to ensure not much changes. And those who want the services, jobs, shopping and education that sprout up when a place hits a critical mass. 

🗣️: “Ballarat is in a unique and ideal position to facilitate the growth of the state,” said Darren Trigg, Project Director at Integra, a development firm involved in the establishment of new suburbs like Lucas, southwest of Ballarat.

Trigg told the Brolga “there is always some resistance” to development, but “as a large regional city you’ve really got to grasp it if you want to have the infrastructure to support the township, you’ve got to grow to attract that growth”. 

BALLARAT TODAY

At a glance: The gold rush city is one of houses. 

City of Ballarat Director Development and Growth, Natalie Robertson, told the Brolga there are:

• 42,262 separate houses

• 6,335 attached dwellings

• 1,409 flats or apartments.

The demand for flats and apartments in or close to regional centre CBDs is expected to increase over time, as more people seek low maintenance properties close to all the action and services. Students, singles, young people, farmers moving off the land, retirees - this is the target market.

The big question: But is Ballarat, and other areas in Western Victoria like Warrnambool, Colac Otway and Horsham, ready to change the way they look at CBD development? Or will regional Victoria forever aim for a blend of rural properties and suburban homes, with the low to mid rise apartment always remaining an outlier?

THE SHOP TOPS

On the ground: Walk the CBD streets of Ballarat and you’ll find buildings with shops on the ground level, but what happens one level up? Is there room for regional CBDs to help create night time economies by repurposing these spaces into apartments?

There is already some permanent and short stay shop-top accommodation on Sturt Street and Armstrong Street North in the CBD, but many multi-storey storefronts remain vacant upstairs.

“First floor residential accommodation above commercial premises has historically been commonplace,” Robertson told the Brolga.

“Changing attitudes towards housing and cars over the past few decades have resulted in a decline in 'shop-top' accommodation. These spaces have largely since been used for storage or remained vacant.”

She said the “adaptive reuse of these spaces is considered to be a good heritage outcome and is encouraged”.

Despite increased interest in establishing accommodation above retail premises in the Ballarat CBD, Robertson said “there are many reasons why uptake has been limited. This includes the need to apply current building code requirements to new retrofitted spaces, which can in some circumstances be a cost impediment to redevelopment”.   

THE APARTMENTS

New kids on the block: West Vic couple Laura and Joseph van Dyk have run Hygge Property for seven years. 

In that time they’ve noticed a trend of young people moving to the area who don’t want to buy a “big family home”. 

They trialled a townhouse project in Soldiers Hill, which they said showed demand for more housing near the CBD. Joseph said they identified a “golden triangle” between Creswick Road and Drummond Street where residents could live comfortably without a car and close to amenities. 

🗣️: “This pocket where you could walk to the lake, walk to the train station, walk to the bars and cafes.” 

In 2022, the van Dyks completed their first Ballarat apartment complex, Nightingale, with 27 apartments. 

“The project includes simple urban design gestures to activate the street,” the marketing materials state. “We took the power lines underground, carved out a generous, semi-public courtyard, planted a significant tree to throw shade over the footpath and built-in seats to improve the pedestrian experience.”

Keeping in theme: The company said it worked with council’s heritage team to restore the McK’s Jelly Crystal sign “to give a glimpse back in time”.

🗣️: “The Nightingale building was a really big step,” Joseph said. “It’s effectively a pretty big trial, an experimental project in some ways. Vertical apartments in a place like Ballarat is a big thing.” 

Trigg described apartment developments as “challenging in a regional context … in my 37 years in Ballarat I've seen three”.  

Council’s Robertson said Ballarat's strategy “identifies a need for more diverse housing options, including townhouses, units and apartments”. 

The tension: The van Dyks faced pushback during the planning process from locals concerned about the Ballarat skyline changing shape. 

🗣️: “People were picketing down the street nearly, we had meetings at the Trades Hall and they were storming up and down. Now they wouldn’t even know it’s here.” 

Hygge Property completed Lyons Place late last year. There are 51 apartments, priced from $600,000 to just over $1 million. Joseph said the design tried to stay true to the character of Ballarat. 

• “Ballarat is such an architecturally significant place. It’s hard to make something that respects the streetscape, but still provides the building mass and area,” he said.

• “At Lyons Place, we basically locked the heritage consultant, urban designer and architect in a room for three days.”

As a result, the building includes recycled local brick and hints of boom-style architecture. Robertson said it was essential to the City of Ballarat that “new projects respond appropriately to heritage values, neighbourhood character, and Heritage Overlay requirements”. 

Joseph said many Nightingale residents were older and had been unable to continue living in larger family homes.

While living in close proximity to neighbours can support a sense of community, it comes with its own challenges. And there are strata payments and committees to navigate.

One resident of an apartment building in Ballarat told the Brolga they moved out as the strata committee was dominated by a small clique who made life difficult. 

THE HERITAGE

Back in time: Ballarat was established as a settlement in 1838 and was proclaimed a township in the 1850s after the discovery of gold. By 1870 it was a bustling city. In the Waddawurung language, Ballarat means “resting place”. 

It is awash with gold rush era history and monuments, and a selection of boom-style architecture. It’s a style unique to Victoria, inspired by the 19th century economic boom in Victoria. There are also elements of Queen Anne and Edwardian styles spread throughout the city. 

This visual history is especially important to locals. The City of Ballarat is currently updating heritage guidelines and policy to maintain this as the city evolves. It recently underwent a year-long community consultation process. 

Trigg said “there comes a point where we have to move forward”. 

Robertson told the Brolga managing incoming growth with the region’s heritage is a "constant balancing act”. 

THE SUBURBS

Reaching out: In recent years, Ballarat has crept outwards with newly minted suburbs that are often treeless plains where rows of similar homes act as a mirror, reflections of practicality that some say lacks character and warmth. 

The soul of an area is a hard thing to develop, and takes time. Suburbs such as Lucas have been built to incorporate parks, waterways and open spaces to break up neighbouring homes. Other spots, like Winter Valley, contain homes arranged in military lines of grey. 

Three key growth areas are outlined by the City of Ballarat as future greenfield supply. 

• The Western Growth Area - Lucas, Smythes Creek and Bunkers Hill. 

• The Northern Growth Area - Parts of Miners Rest and Mount Rowan. 

• The North-Western Growth Area - Cited by the City as “irregular in shape”, on the west side of the city, includes parts of Lucas and Cardigan. 

A changed market: Trigg told the Brolga the demand for suburban living has “slowed significantly”. 

🗣️: “Previously, the number of houses [we were building each year] was in the mid-1000s, now [that’s] under 1,000 homes a year in greenfield space. It’s one of the big challenges for Ballarat - 46,900 homes by [2051]. That's averaged out to 2,000 a year, and now we’re building below 1,000.” 

He said younger people today were not as obsessed with becoming home owners as previous generations.

🗣️: “It’s not a really driving force. Things like travel come before.” 

As a result, out-of-state investors are snapping up houses and driving up property prices not only in Ballarat, but in Ararat and the Pyrenees. 

Trigg also cited increasing land taxes as a barrier to affordability. 

“When building a house, 40 percent of the costs are in tax,” he said. 

THE ECONOMY 

The bigger picture: National issues, like the cost of living crisis and housing affordability, are driving Australians out of capital cities. 

The Regional Movers Index found 38 percent of Australians leaving capital cities were in Victoria, and 49 percent of Australians aged 18 to 29 were considering a regional move. According to the RMI data, there is a perceived increase in lifestyle and career opportunities outside of capital cities. 

In the ‘Rat: The largest economic generator in Ballarat is manufacturing, due to the presence of Mars Wrigley and McCain. The expanded Ballarat Base Hospital - a $655 million project - is expected to generate over 1,000 new jobs. 

The Ballarat Winter Festival hosts ice skating, themed events and light displays at Sovereign Hill to draw visitors from out of town. Tourism produces more than half a billion dollars annually for the local economy. 

THE SCHOOLS

Thinking of the kids: The City of Ballarat has acknowledged ongoing demand for access to institutions like Ballarat High School and Dana Street Primary School. If the city is to meet its housing targets, the demand for new primary and high schools will only ramp up.

“Where do the kids go to school?” Trigg asked. “Schools are at capacity in central Ballarat.”

The solution, he said, was new schools in greenfield developments.