Corangamite, Colac Otway and Northern Grampians will begin their fire danger periods two weeks early this year as the Country Fire Authority (CFA) prepares for a hot, dry summer.
While September this year was the sixth driest – and fourth hottest – September on record, some parts of the state recorded their wettest October day on record, and others had their wettest October on record.
The CFA says the recent rainfall is expected to increase the amount of fuel in the region - plants that easily grow, dry out and ignite - adding to fire risk.
An official El Nino was declared on June 16, which is typically known for bringing dry weather and drought. So how did Victoria go from all the regular symptoms of El Nino to bringing in record rainfall?
Drying out in a flash: Andrew Watkins, an adjunct professor in Monash University’s School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, told the Brolga there are many competing factors contributing to the current wet weather.
“We’ve been lulled by history into a sense of El Nino always equalling drought and heat,” he said.
But the wet isn’t likely to last. Watkins said the Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting high temperatures in the later months of the season.
“As we get into January and February, that's when that wet signal would probably ease off the most … it would mean there would be a lot of grass growth and a lot of undergrowth that will dry out, and the bureau's seasonal outlook is very hot, so the grass fire danger would go right up,” he said.
Watkins explained the risk of flash droughts, a quick turn from consistent rain and moist soil to hot weather and low rain that has the ability to dry out a landscape rapidly.
"You can develop drought conditions quite quickly when you get a period of lower rainfall but very high temperatures, and that will be the one we'll be watching out for,” he said.
“Even if we go [into summer] with a bit of reasonable soil moisture, if we do get periods of very hot and windy conditions, it can dry out the landscape quite quickly, within a couple of weeks.”
Fire danger period: Colac Otway, Corangamite and Northern Grampians will begin their fire danger periods at 1am on Monday, November 23.
This means residents must obtain a permit before burning off and campfires, barbecues and outdoor cooking must comply with CFA instructions, and farm machinery and lawnmowers must be free from defects that could spark or cause fire.
Colac Fire Brigade Captain Daniel Williams told the Brolga the region’s recent rain isn’t likely to have fully soaked into the soil, but will cause a lot of growth in paddocks and bushland.
“They're going to have bumper hay seasons this year, and obviously it dampens the fuels in the forests, but they dry out pretty quickly,” he explained.
“A lot of the downpours that we have had have been big pours, so generally what happens there is it'll run off into a dam rather than sit in one spot and soak in.”
Williams expected western Victoria’s grasslands and crops to hold the most fire risk this summer.
“And because we haven't had the real soaking rains and days on end of solid rain, the forest will still be available to burn. Just look at the Gellibrand fire last year; it showed that fire will run through some of the wetter forests that we've got in the Otways.”
Why the rain? Watkins said a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a weather system which involves wind pushing warmer water towards Africa and rain clouds with it, means Australia is typically dry, especially when paired with an El Nino pattern.
But another weather event happening south of Australia is complicating things.
“High over Antarctica, we actually have a very strong and stable polar vortex,” he explained.
A polar vortex describes how the air is moving up in the stratosphere above Antarctica; when the winds reach sea level, they draw weather systems further south, while El Nino tries to push them north.
Watkins said the push and pull between the weather systems, combined with extra moisture in the atmosphere due to climate change is what’s bringing more rain to south east Australia.