New research shows Australian travellers are altering their holiday plans because of extreme heat, with possible large-scale repercussions for the billion-dollar tourism industry on West Vic’s coastline.
Real world impact: Along the Great Ocean Road, January’s dual hit of fire and flood remains etched in local memory. Both businesses and residents have toiled with lost security and lost trade, and now face a long-range forecast of unusually high temperatures heading into the summer period.
Surf Coast Shire reported the average daily spend in its coastal hubs was halved after the January 2026 flash flooding event, reducing from $386,000 a day to $172,000.
What happened: In January, the Great Ocean Road was confronted with extreme weather events almost back to back: devastating fires tearing through the Otways and flash flooding that caused extensive destruction through Wye River, Lorne, and more.
Image credit: Justinita Cameralleri
Why does it matter: Tourism is a crucial pillar of both the Surf Coast and Otways economy.
The local industry is worth $1.9 billion, and approximately four million visits to the region each year are linked to its natural assets: the Twelve Apostles, vibrant rainforests, and dramatic cliffside coastlines.
Image: The Twelve Apostles,
Tallying the cost: Surf Coast Shire Mayor Libby Stapleton said the region lost 230,000 visitors in the aftermath of January’s weather events, and spending in the second half of the month declined by 75 percent.
“I think it was a double whammy of fires in the landscape, the threat of fire in Colac-Otway Shire and the flood as well,” she told the Brolga. “A lot of people chose to stay away, even though Lorne was pretty much open the next day.”
Stapleton said it was an understandable “precautionary approach” from tourists, but given the billion-dollar tourism industry in the region, it was “really significant, and really impacted local businesses.”
“There’s extensive erosion and gullies where you might have had a 1-2 metre ridge which is now 5 metres,” she said. “Viewing platforms and waterfalls too.”
Image: Erskine Falls
The bigger picture: Stephen Garnett, a Professor in Conservation and Sustainable Livelihoods at Charles Darwin University, recently co-authored a study looking at how tourists are changing their behaviour as weather extremes increase.
“We were really surprised that heat had as big an influence as wet weather,” he told the Brolga. “There’s no trends yet, but it’s something that’s expected to increase - all the models suggest that’s the way it is going.”
Garnett called the research a baseline study, meaning it’s a starting point for future analysis of this kind. It contains the first empirical data showing Australians changing their travel plans due to heat.
Of those surveyed, 36 percent said they had shortened, altered or extended the dates of their planned travel in response to extreme weather, such as storms or bushfires.
“Tourists are already changing their plans,” Garnett told the Brolga. “The numbers will increase.”
An even bigger picture: The long-range forecast to November from the Bureau of Meteorology has flagged higher temperatures, amplified by El Niño. There’s a 60 percent likelihood of “unusually high maximum temperatures" across the southern two-thirds of Australia.
Adjunct Professor at Monash University’s School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Dr Andrew Watkins, told our sister publication the Gippsland Monitor that “climate change is starting to peek its head out and dominate more than natural drivers”.
“The sooner we stabilise our emissions, the sooner we stabilise our temperatures,” he told the Monitor.
What next? Mayor Stapleton said that Surf Coast Shire is prioritising advocacy to both the state and federal level to help fund the Great Ocean Road and Parks Authority’s restoration of damaged landscapes.
She also said community groups had formed in both Lorne and Aireys Inlet so residents could form action plans and be prepared for future disasters.
Garnett said tourism operators need to become flexible, and have alternative options that are less weather-reliant.
“A single hot day can be pretty taxing on people,” he said. “Health services need to be ready for the heat, there’s people going down not realising how hot it's going to be”.
Header Image: Tourism Australia