Warrnambool’s whale season has been unusually quiet, with Southern Right Whale sightings few and far between and very few mothers bringing calves into Logans Beach.
What’s going on: Fiona Van Kempen, who has run whale tours in Warrnambool since 2018, said sightings had become increasingly unpredictable this winter, despite strong interest from people hoping to see the whales.
🗣️ “As soon as the socials come up that there's whales, people always start making inquiries, but it's very difficult to be running the whale tours because this year they're very unpredictable,” she said.
Few and far: The business owner said the last Southern Right Whale sighting was five days before speaking to the Brolga on Wednesday, following a previous sighting on July 24.
At Logans Beach, Van Kempen said there had been no cows coming in to calve and stay for the season, though some Humpback Whales have been spotted.
🗣️ “A lot of them are out wide, so they're hard to see. You might just see the blow, the blow of the spout,” she said.
Southern Right Whales that have appeared have also been moving on quickly.
🗣️ “The one on the 24th, it went on to Portland. Then it was sighted there with its calf, and it's just been sighted in South Australia. So they're just moving around,” Van Kempen said.
Why are there less Southern Rights? Marine ecologist and researcher at the University of Tasmania, Dr Angus Henderson, said the quieter season could reflect a broader change in Southern Right Whale numbers and behaviour.
Until about 2015 to 2020, Southern Right Whale numbers had been increasing strongly as the population recovered from whaling, reaching about 10 percent of its original abundance along the south coast of Australia.
🗣️ “Now they've stopped recovering at that rate, and perhaps are stabilising or declining,” Henderson explained.
He said changing food availability in the Southern Ocean was likely a major factor, with climate change and other human pressures including vessel traffic, ship strikes and entanglements also contributing.
What about breeding? Henderson said the longer gap between breeding visits could also explain the lack of cows and calves at Warrnambool. Mothers were increasingly returning closer to every five years, rather than every three.
Why more Humpbacks? The outlook for Humpback whales, however, has had a more positive turn in recent years .
🗣️ “So Humpbacks are doing really well. Their populations are still increasing quite rapidly, and they're probably at pre-whaling numbers, or even maybe past pre-whaling numbers,” Henderson said.
Some younger Humpback Whales are also changing their migration patterns, with some spending time around Victoria and Tasmania rather than travelling all the way to Antarctica.
Could there be more? Humpback Whale sightings should increase through the coming months, with the southward migration building through October and November before peaking around December.
🗣️ “We could still get some whale activity coming in later in the season,” said Van Kempen.